Statistical soccer predictions for top Euro leagues
See our ‘Stat-Picks‘ for the top 5 football leagues in Europe:
Football statistics used for the predictions to be generated
The prediction for every match is based on the following football statistics:
- League points;
- Last 5 league games (home & away);
- Last 5 home league games for the hosts;
- Last 5 away league games for the visitors;
- Head to Head in the last 2 years.
Value of confidence for the betting tips
The number in each generated prediction means confidence in the pick (from 1 to 10, or Draw).
See here: best tips (with confidence 10).
Correct Score Predictions
ComboBets.com, unlike other predictors, also provides the most probable correct score for every game.
The Correct Score tip could be useful for different kind of bets, like Handicap, Over/Under, Both Teams To Score and so on.
For example, if the statistical football prediction is 3-1, the following bets are recommended:
- Over 2,5 Goals
- Both Teams To Score – Yes
- Home Team to Win with -1 Handicap
- Home Team to Score 2+ Goals
- and more.
See more football predictions.
What is xG (Expected Goals)?
After the Stat-Picks for a league, you can see results from the last rounds. And also – the xG (fairness of the result) for every game.
Note: The xG are not calculated for the Stat-Picks. But you can use the xG to know how fairness are the last results of a team so you can make a more correct decision.
Now let’s learn what xG means and why is important?
Expected goals (xG) quantifies the quality of any given scoring opportunity, giving each chance a probability of being scored. The higher the probability, the better the chance.
Football is a low scoring sport, where most top-flight leagues average around 2.5 total goals per game. And by looking at the process of chance creation, denoted by the expected goals of each individual chance, it is possible to more quickly identify those teams who are profiting from an unsustainable lucky, hot streak.
The process of chance creation, together with a quantified estimation of each individual chance created and faced by a side is often a better indicator of future performance than the often luck driven singular outcome of those chances.
At its most simplistic, the expected goals (xG) created by each team in a match can be summed and compared to the actual result to determine whether or not the match outcome was a fair reflection of attacking and defensive process of each team.
For example, a team that is consistently winning matches while creating fewer expected goals (xG) than their opponents, might be expected to experience more usual rewards for their efforts in the future and subsequent results may take a downswing.
Similarly, a side that is creating chances, but failing to score regularly might eventually begin to reap a fairer reward for their creativity.
So the last xG results can be used to analyse a team’s “true” performance on a match, regardless of the final score result.