Stat-Picks: Statistical Football Predictions

top football leagues

Statistical soccer predictions for top Euro leagues

See our ‘Stat-Picks‘ for the top 5 football leagues in Europe:

Football statistics used for the predictions to be generated

The prediction for every match is based on the following football statistics:

  • League points;
  • Last 5 league games (home & away);
  • Last 5 home league games for the hosts;
  • Last 5 away league games for the visitors;
  • Head to Head in the last 2 years.

Value of confidence for the betting tips

The number in each generated prediction means confidence in the pick (from 1 to 10, or Draw).

See here: best tips (with confidence 10).

Correct Score Predictions

ComboBets.com, unlike other predictors, also provides the most probable correct score for every game.

The Correct Score tip could be useful for different kind of bets, like Handicap, Over/Under, Both Teams To Score and so on.

For example, if the statistical football prediction is 3-1, the following bets are recommended:

  • Over 2,5 Goals
  • Both Teams To Score – Yes
  • Home Team to Win with -1 Handicap
  • Home Team to Score 2+ Goals
  • and more.

See more football predictions.

What is xG (Expected Goals)?

After the Stat-Picks for a league, you can see results from the last rounds. And also – the xG (fairness of the result) for every game.

Note: The xG are not calculated for the Stat-Picks. But you can use the xG to know how fairness are the last results of a team so you can make a more correct decision.

Now let’s learn what xG means and why is important?

Expected goals (xG) quantifies the quality of any given scoring opportunity, giving each chance a probability of being scored. The higher the probability, the better the chance.

Football is a low scoring sport, where most top-flight leagues average around 2.5 total goals per game. And by looking at the process of chance creation, denoted by the expected goals of each individual chance, it is possible to more quickly identify those teams who are profiting from an unsustainable lucky, hot streak.

The process of chance creation, together with a quantified estimation of each individual chance created and faced by a side is often a better indicator of future performance than the often luck driven singular outcome of those chances.

At its most simplistic, the expected goals (xG) created by each team in a match can be summed and compared to the actual result to determine whether or not the match outcome was a fair reflection of attacking and defensive process of each team.

For example, a team that is consistently winning matches while creating fewer expected goals (xG) than their opponents, might be expected to experience more usual rewards for their efforts in the future and subsequent results may take a downswing.

Similarly, a side that is creating chances, but failing to score regularly might eventually begin to reap a fairer reward for their creativity.

So the last xG results can be used to analyse a team’s “true” performance on a match, regardless of the final score result.

xG sources: InfogolUnderstat.

27 thoughts on “Stat-Picks: Statistical Football Predictions

  1. The prediction for every match is based on the following football statistics:
    League points;
    Last 5 league games (home & away);
    Last 5 home league games for the hosts;
    Last 5 away league games for the visitors;
    Head to Head in the last 2 years.

    I will appreciate if you can kindly share your selection process, using a game as an example. I follow your tips and the are amazing. I am learning so please don’t get me wrong, I just want to learn from your expertise.

    • please if u understand what he meant with this principle – please explain to me ..The prediction for every match is based on the following football statistics:
      League points;
      Last 5 league games (home & away);
      Last 5 home league games for the hosts;
      Last 5 away league games for the visitors;
      Head to Head in the last 2 years.

  2. to get bigger odds…look for a team with BTTS with odds of 1.8 for both yes and no. add YES to ticket one with the combobet daily picks and NO with ticket two. and also look for another team with BTTS with odds of 1.8 for both btts yes and no. add the the both options to each of your two tickets. now the daily combobet ticket will give you X3 +

  3. I love ur had work bro it not DAT eazy may God coutinu to bless u n ur time pled I want to Len how u do wit ples .

  4. Av visited more than 15 predictions site, combobet is the best. 98% percent confidential level. Thumbs up. As for jolloftips.com I can also give them 95%.

  5. this is good but make sure u perfect every single bet to be correct on your top bet because you loose 1 per each day prediction its 95%

    • Hallo this morning,

      i would like u to assit me in analysing the following games for me ,some of this matches are selected in one of betika jackport.
      Helsingborg Djurgarden
      Soccer – Superligaen, Denmark 06/05 20:00
      Esbjerg NORDSJ?LLAND
      Soccer – Eliteserien, Norway 06/05 20:00
      Viking Valerenga
      Soccer – Allsvenskan, Sweden 06/05 20:00
      Elfsborg Norrkoping
      Soccer – UEFA Champions League, International Clubs 07/05 22:00
      LIVERPOOL BARCELONA
      Soccer – UEFA Champions League, International Clubs 08/05 22:00
      AJAX TOTTENHAM
      Soccer – UEFA Europa League, International Clubs 09/05 22:00
      VALENCIA Arsenal
      Best regards

      fred

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.